What's at Stake? The 2020 U.S. Election: Blog Post

by Marcus Macauley

PhD candidate, SFU Department of Political Science

*Event video link

Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, the United States is poised to hold a general election of great consequence. Not only is the highly controversial incumbent U.S. president, Donald Trump, up for re-election, but the balance of power in Congress is at stake, highlighted by several hotly contested down-ballot Senate and House races. 

To discuss salient issues and implications related to the election, SFU Public Square hosted a roundtable event on October 28, moderated by SFU Political Science professor Steven Weldon and featuring a diverse panel of experts on American politics, including Richard Johnston (UBC Emeritus), Stephen Nuño-Perez (Northern Arizona University), Niambi M. Carter (Howard University), Laurel Weldon (SFU), and Mark Pickup (SFU). Each panelist provided unique insights on what’s at stake in the 2020 U.S. election and offered their thoughts on what we should expect on election night and in the days that follow. 

Richard Johnston
Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of British Columbia

Richard Johnston began the evening by situating the 2020 election in the context of previous U.S. elections, underscoring the key role of the electoral college, battleground states and the growing partisan divide in the U.S. Johnston stressed that, like past elections, the 2020 election will be largely decided by a handful of highly competitive states where electoral college votes will be crucial. 

Among the key states to watch, Johnston identified Pennsylvania as this year’s “tipping point” state for Democratic challenger Joe Biden, where a plurality of the popular vote would likely secure enough electoral college delegates to unseat Donald Trump. Further, if Biden manages to capture the newly minted battleground state of Georgia, we can expect an outright Biden sweep of the electoral college. 

That said, Johnston expects that partisan loyalties will dominate the 2020 election, as has been the growing trend in the U.S. electorate. While there may be some fluctuation in expressed support for candidates in the days leading up to the election, we should expect partisans on both sides to support their party. Fewer and fewer Americans are shirking partisan ties at the ballot box, and Johnston does not expect this trend to decline.

Stephen Nuño-Perez

Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Politics and International Affairs, Northern Arizona University

Stephen Nuño-Perez spoke to the role of Latino voters in the 2020 election by presenting findings from newly released survey data highlighting current trends among U.S. Latino populations. 

On average, Latinos favour Joe Biden over Donald Trump (67% to 26%). However, Nuño-Perez noted that this favourability margin varies across gender. Men tend to favour Biden only slightly more than Trump, while women favour Biden at a much higher rate. This trend is reflective of similar patterns among Latinos in previous elections, where men vote conservative with higher frequency than women. Further, Biden appears to lead Trump in key age demographics of 18-34 and 65+.

Nuño-Perez said these trends could be detrimental to Trump’s re-election efforts in states with considerably large Latino populations, including the battleground states of Arizona and Texas. Further, Nuño-Perez suggested Latino voters (particularly Puerto Rican-Americans) may prove consequential in other battleground states not traditionally associated with large Latino populations, such as Pennsylvania. 

Niambi M. Carter

Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of Graduate Studies, Howard University

Niambi M. Carter discussed the state of voting rights in the 2020 election and highlighted the increased role of voter suppression efforts following key changes to the U.S.’s Voting Rights Act (VRA) in 2013.

Citing specific changes to sections 4 and 5 of the VRA resulting from the Supreme Court case Shelby County v. Holder (2013), local adjustments to electoral district protocols no longer require judicial review prior to enactment. This change has corresponded with a rise in draconian methods for preventing voter registration and voting (stricter voter identification requirements, reduction in polling places, and restrictions on mail-in ballots, to name a few). This has disproportionately impacted turnout rates among minority and marginalized populations, as Republican-led states seek to stifle Democratic support in neighbourhoods with large visible minority populations. 

Carter expects that increased barriers to political participation through previous changes to the VRA will play a pivotal role in the 2020 election, in consideration of broader restrictions on in-person voting during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Laurel Weldon

Distinguished Full Professor, SFU Department of Political Science

Laurel Weldon provided insights on key similarities and differences among white voters in the U.S. from 2016 compared with 2020. 

With a focus on gender differences and levels of education, Weldon noted that support for Democrats among college-educated white women remains similar to 2016. However, in 2020 Trump is receiving less support from both educated and uneducated whites of all genders. In fact, white women as a group are leaning Democrat at their highest rates since 1992. 

Weldon suggested that a few salient factors unique to the 2020 election may help us understand these trends. At present, the current pandemic and the meagre response efforts by the Trump administration may skew the electoral advantage to a Democratic party campaigning on enhanced health care supports, especially among aging high-risk populations, such as older whites. Longitudinal variables may also be contributing to increased migration of white women to the left, including increased legislation for reproductive rights, greater economic benefits for women, and/or enhanced policy efforts toward gender equality. 

For men, Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric may have less draw in 2020 than it did in 2016. Educated white men report feeling less threatened by immigrants in recent years. Alternatively, whites may simply prefer Joe Biden’s protective parental image, as opposed to Donald Trump’s “burn it down” mentality. Weldon suggested that historic changes in aggregate patterns of support among whites toward the Democrats may have wide-ranging effects for 2020 and beyond.

Mark Pickup

Associate Professor, SFU Department of Political Science

Mark Pickup detailed the diverse methods employed by the Trump administration over the past eight months to “spin” public opinion on the COVID-19 pandemic to show Trump in a favourable light. From regularly downplaying the virus’s lethality to promoting unfounded Chinese conspiracy theories to an outright proclamation that the “pandemic is over,” Pickup stressed that Trump and his campaign have worked tirelessly to control the public narrative of the pandemic by disseminating erroneous claims and misinformation. 

To some degree these tactics have been effective, especially for Republican partisans. Recent U.S. survey data shows that individuals who identify as Republican are more likely to approve of Trump’s pandemic response efforts, less likely to be concerned about COVID, less likely to take precautions to avoid COVID infections, and much more likely to believe the virus is the result of a Chinese plot than Democrats. 

Further, Pickup suggests Trump’s concurrent efforts to question the legitimacy of mail-in ballots are related to spinning the pandemic narrative and laying groundwork for contesting a tight election outcome. With Democrats using mail-in ballots at nearly double the rate of Republican voters in efforts to avoid potential COVID infections at polling stations, the Trump campaign has added incentive to downplay the virus and punish voters who do not show up at the polls on election day.

Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here belong solely to the panelists, and not necessarily to Simon Fraser University's Department of Political Science.